Thursday, December 3, 2009

What If the South had Won the War Between the States?


South Wins!!!
By Russell D. Longcore

How different would the world be today if the Confederate States of America (CSA) had won? Here is my version of how history might have transpired.


The first seven Southern states seceded from the Union and formed the Confederate States of America in February of 1861. The first hostilities at Fort Sumter, SC happened in April 1861.

Battle of Bull Run/First Manassas, July, 1861

(In the actual battle, the South wins. CSA Generals Beauregard and Johnston command barely 29,000 troops against 50,000 Federal troops under the command of Gen Winfield Scott. The Confederacy wins the battle, and the Federal troops make a full panicked retreat back to Washington. But President Jefferson Davis hesitates and loses the opportunity to capture Washington, DC, which would have ended the war in the first major battle. Here is how it could have gone if Davis had made a positive decision to complete the battle, and here is the history that could have flowed from that victory.)

Learning of the Federal defeat and retreat, President Jefferson Davis and General Beauregard order the CSA troops to complete the rout by pursuing the Northern troops back to Washington, only about 30 miles. The pursuit is made far easier for CSA troops as the Federals have abandoned their stores of provisions all along the way back to Washington. A small cavalry force under the command of General Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson captures the White House and President Lincoln. The cavalry and CSA troops camp on the White House lawn.

Within a week, President Davis and General Robert E. Lee begin negotiations with Lincoln, Cabinet members and Congress members to cease hostilities permanently. The parties negotiate various treaties regarding commerce between the nations. They determine that subsequent territories desirous of statehood get to choose which nation to join, and other border issues.

Abraham Lincoln is impeached by Congress and removed from office in late 1861. He is tried, found guilty of war crimes and receives a prison sentence of 50 years, and dies in prison. As General Ulysses S. Grant has achieved no notoriety in the war, he is not elected President and retires in obscurity.

The lives of over 620,000 men on both sides of the Mason-Dixon Line are spared. The CSA is not pillaged and sacked by the Union forces. The state of West Virginia is not formed by Lincoln. CSA cities and plantations are not burned. There are no draft riots in New York City. Northern newspaper editors are not jailed for disagreeing with Lincoln. Robert E. Lee's plantation named "Arlington" is not stolen by the US Government and made into a Union cemetery.

The importation of slaves was outlawed in the CSA Constitution of 1861, and slavery slowly collapses under its own weight at about the same time as mechanization comes to agriculture in the 1870s. The freed slaves become sharecroppers, or become a part of the workforce necessary in the manufacturing boom in the CSA.

Jefferson Davis serves his Constitutionally-mandated single six-year term, and then is elected Senator from Texas, where he serves until just before his death. John Calhoun of South Carolina is the next President elected in 1866. Dozens of new Southern cities and streets are named after Davis, just like George Washington's legacy after the Revolutionary War.

Stonewall Jackson does not die in battle in 1863, but goes back to the Virginia Military Institute, where he resumes teaching. He eventually becomes the Chancellor of the School, and remains in this position until his death.

The Citadel, the Charleston military academy, becomes the Naval Academy for the CSA.

Richmond, Virginia, continues to be the capitol of the CSA. Atlanta becomes the business and financial center of the CSA. The Atlanta Stock Exchange becomes one of the largest and wealthiest in the world. Most of the major banks of the South are based in Atlanta.

The territories west of the Mississippi eventually seek statehood, and must decide with which nation they will align themselves. Only North and South Dakota Territories decide to become US states. All other territories become Confederate states, because the Montgomery Constitution of 1861 was a vast improvement over the US Constitution.

The USA becomes a nation bordered on the north by Canada, on the east by the Atlantic Ocean, on the south and west by the CSA. California, Maryland and Oregon vote to secede from the Union and join the CSA in 1862. The USA statehood growth ceases at 19 states. The CSA eventually grows to 27 states, bordered on the north by the USA and Western Canada, on the west by the Pacific Ocean, on the east by the Atlantic, and on the south by Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. Puerto Rico becomes the last state to join the CSA in 1960.

Hawaii is not stolen by the USA and remains a sovereign nation. Alaska belongs to Canada.

The CSA's import tariffs are an average of 13%. Consequently, shipping and trade at Southern ports explodes. The ports of Norfolk, Charleston, Savannah, Miami and New Orleans become the busiest ports on the Eastern Seaboard. Western ports at San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle become CSA ports. The port of Norfolk/Portsmouth becomes the shipbuilding capital of the Americas. The Navy of the CSA is harbored at Norfolk and Charleston. The CSA controls all commerce in Chesapeake Bay and controls all commerce coming up and down the Mississippi River.

USA's main ports are New York, Newark, Philadelphia and Boston. The canals and locks are built by the US government to facilitate access to the Great Lakes.

Chicago still becomes a major Midwestern business center, and a center for commodities. Kansas City, Missouri becomes the major Midwestern business center and commodities exchange for the South.

Southern manufacturing expands rapidly as investments pour into the CSA from wealthy Southerners, as well as Northern and European investors. The Bessemer steel mill in Alabama becomes the largest steel mill in the world.

CSA makes gold and silver the only money. Southern banks are not regulated by the government and are allowed to coin their own money. Fractional banking is not allowed in the CSA. There is no inflation in the CSA throughout its history.

In 1898, William Randolph Hearst owns a chain of publications and newspapers. However, his publishing empire is in California, which is a state of the CSA. Hearst finds no interest in the CSA for his stories about Spain's influence in the Western Hemisphere, as Spain is a valued ally and trading nation. The US Congress and President McKinley want to establish an American Empire. However, with only 20 states, they are no so quick to project military might. Their southernmost port is Philadelphia, not Florida. The USS Maine is never dispatched to Havana harbor and does not sink there. Teddy Roosevelt never leads the Rough Riders in a cavalry charge up San Juan Hill in Cuba. He does not win the Congressional Medal of Honor. The United States has no naval presence in the Pacific, and does not attack the Spanish at Manila.

Theodore Roosevelt still becomes Vice President, and eventually becomes President in 1901 when McKinley is assassinated.

Theodore Roosevelt leads the project to build the Panama Canal. Many CSA companies participate, but the CSA government does not spend money unconstitutionally on the project.

Hoover Dam is not built by the US government, but by a consortium of the seven states served by the Colorado River. Its name remains the Boulder Dam.

The CSA continues to gain its revenue from tariffs, and there is never an income tax of any kind.

There is no CSA standing army, but each state has its militia. The CSA does have a Navy, authorized in its Constitution.

Oil is discovered in Texas, Oklahoma and the Gulf of Mexico. Over time, the CSA becomes an exporter of petroleum products to the North, as Northern oil fields do not produce what they need. The CSA is entirely self-sufficient in oil and gas. Because there is no inflation, crude oil prices never exceed $20 per barrel.

Coal is also produced and exported to the North from the vast fields of Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia (remember that West Virginia is not formed by Lincoln).

The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914 starts WWI. As a result of the overlapping treaty obligations between various European nations, the continent is gripped by war. Even though US President Wilson desires entry into the war, the USA does not have either the military might or the political will to enter. The USA gives support of munitions and material to the Allies in much smaller quantities but does not commit ground troops to the Continent. Germany wins, and the maps of Europe are redrawn. There is no Treaty of Versailles. Germany projects its military might worldwide with its navy, a superior force to the defeated British navy. However, Germany is very friendly with the CSA, who stayed neutral in the war. It is more hostile toward the US.

After 1918, Germany becomes a major world power. No communism develops in Russia, as a strong Germany would not tolerate it, and was positioned geographically to do something about it. Hitler remains an obscure paper-hanger and non-entity.

The Ottoman Turkish Empire is not defeated in WWI. Consequently, the territories controlled by Turkey are not divided, and the British do not get the opportunity to establish Palestine, Syria and Trans-Jordan in 1918. This also means that the state of Israel was not established in 1948. Prior to World War I, the best major European countries in which to be Jewish were Germany and Austria. The vast Jewish communities of Central and Eastern Europe would have held their traditional places in multi-nation-empires, instead of becoming aliens in new nation-states. The Jewish diaspora from Russia and Europe to North America would not have occurred in such large numbers. Consequently, many of the Jewish movie directors, producers, writers, composers and actors would have stayed in Europe.

Hollywood does not become the world's entertainment center, but Berlin does. But Hollywood does become an important center of entertainment in Los Angeles, California, CSA.

The Great Depression of 1929 does still occur in the USA because of the formation of the Federal Reserve and fractional banking. However, the CSA is enriched by it, since the CSA's money is backed by gold and silver, with no inflation. Thousands of businesses and millions of people relocate to the South and West.

Japan becomes one of the leading nations of the Far East. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are not bombed with nuclear weapons in 1945.

Russia remains a monarchy. Communism never gains a toehold. V.I. Lenin, Karl Marx, Leon Trotsky and Joseph Stalin remain obscure theorists. No Iron Curtain. No Cold War. No use for thousands of ICMBs...they were never built.

No Communist Cuba. The CSA has a very strong relationship with Cuba, and is Cuba's primary trading partner. Cuba emulates the CSA's constitution, and becomes a beacon of freedom for Latin and South America. However, the US also trades with Cuba since no embargo was enacted.

Mao Tse Tung and his wife are communists and work to bring Communism to China. They are arrested and executed in 1927. No more Communism in China.

China's emperor embraces capitalism, and China becomes a leading world power.

Word War II does not occur, since none of the reasons for the war existed.

The Jewish Holocaust does not occur.

The Wright brothers fly their airplane in 1903 at Kitty Hawk, NC. Over the remaining part of the 20th Century, aeronautic innovation occurs primarily in private aviation, since the USA and CSA were not consumed by and planning wars.

NASA is not created by governments, but private enterprise develops rocket technology.

No United Nations is formed.

No Korean War. The Korean Peninsula is not split by Chinese Communism, and the nation remains whole.

John F. Kennedy is not assassinated in Dallas in 1963. However, his Executive Order 11110 on June 4, 1963 to issue silver-backed money and de-fund the Federal Reserve still gets him assassinated in a Northern city. Someone other than Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas becomes the next president.

The CSA embraces nuclear power, and dozens of nuclear power generating plants spring up all over the nation. The CSA generates 90% of its electrical needs through clean, safe nuclear power.

No Vietnam War, and only one Vietnamese nation exists because China is not promoting Communism.

No Gulf Wars.

In the entire 140-plus year history of the Confederate States of America, there is no warfare, save the one day of battle on July 21, 1861 in Virginia.

Over 150 million people are not killed by governments and wars during the 20th century. All because Jefferson Davis did not hesitate to act on a day in July of 1861.

One Man Can Make A Difference.


Copyright © 2008, All Rights Reserved.
Reprinted with permission of the author.

Russell D. Longcore is one of those rare individuals who has found the perfect career and enjoys every minute of his work. Russell has an insurance claims practice headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. In his career, he has handled claims as simple as a water leak in a home, and as complicated as multi-million dollar commercial property and liability losses. Russell is one of the leading authorites in North America on the insurance claims process. He is the author of the most popular book at Amazon.com on insurance claims, entitled "Insurance Claim Secrets REVEALED!" Russ invites you to visit his website at: http://www.insurance-claim-secrets.com/

He is married to "his redhead," Julie, and has three wonderful children, and three even more wonderful grandchildren.


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22 comments:

  1. What a load of neo-confederate wishful thinking crap! First off, there are serious historical problems with Mr. Longcore's history of the battle of Bull Run. First off, the commander of the Union forces is not W. Scott, but Irwin McDowell while the confederates were commanded by Johnston and Beauregard. The confederates outnumbered the Yanks 32,230 to 28,450 respectively. True the south wins the battle but Davis was not involved in the decision not to pursue the Yanks back to Washington.

    http://www.nps.gov/history/hps/abpp//battles/va005.htm

    As for the importation of slave being outlawed by the south in 1861...what is your point. The Federal Government outlawed this in 1807 and the only reason the south outlawed it in 1861 was to increase the value of slaves in the south. The belief that slavery would have died a natural death in the south is laughable since the price of slaves was at its highest point just before the war.

    Calhoun as the second CSA president at age 84? But then again he dies in 1850 so you would have had to have a corpes as president.

    The rest is just pure conjecture and fantasy not worthy of comment...but nice try...but, your confederate wet dream will never come true.

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  2. In a letter written on July 22 1861 by my Great Uncle, William H Tatum.
    Pvt 1st company Richmond Howitzers’

    “ The enemy then retreated pursued by our forces and at last account were still running. Two of our pieces followed, one was mine. We followed for about two miles and then were ordered back. We could see strewn
    along the way Oil cloth, blankets and supply’s in profusion. We rested well last night and are ordered on today I understand, two only of our pieces will go forward today, I will go, so don’t be surprised if you see my next letter dated from Washington !”

    Wow So close and yet so far !

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  3. TrueConfederate, thanks so much for sharing the excerpt from the letter from your Great Uncle, written in 1861. You are very fortunate to have those manuscripts and I would love to read more of them.

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  4. Mr Conn.
    Contact me at - Davtatum@aol.com, I have over 60 Transscripts of his letters. and will be glad to share them with you !

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  5. I won't comment on most of the spectacular silliness of this version of history, but one point you might want to consider - metal values are not absolute. In the real world the value of silver has plummeted because the main industrial use - photographic chemicals - is rapidly vanishing. Wonder what this does to the CSA's economy?

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  6. Hmmmm. Looks like the same Corey Meyer, aka "Billy Yank", who was caught lying about Tom DiLorenzo and also judged deficient in numerous ways over at the Rebellion blog.

    So, Corey, having been shown to be the fool you are over at Rebellion, have you come over here to annoy these folks?

    Excellent bit of speculation, Mr. Longcore, and most needed in light of the fact that defenders of the Union never tire of setting forth their own speculation regarding how awful things would have been had the South won. Technically, all these mental exercises are instances of the "hypothesis contrary to fact" fallacy, but as long as Yankee apologetes set forth theirs, we might as well imitate them in order to show those folks just how silly the are.

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  7. Thanks Mr. Jones. Please just call me Stephen.

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  8. Snaggle-Tooth Jones,

    Just for fun, what in my statement about Mr. Longcore's history of the battle of Bull Run was wrong.

    As for Mr. Dilorenzo, I did contact him, and I did ask him about his lack of discussion on the actions of the confederacy in terms of Lincoln's actions at the beginning of the war. You can believe me or not...hell you can call me a liar if you want...and you have. Does not change the fact the Mr. Dilorenzo's history is very lacking and not respected by serious historians.

    Corey Meyer
    AKA Billy Yank

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  9. I believe you are a liar, Corey, and a neer-do-well besides. You can't even seem to accurately represent here what took place in the comments box discussion over at the Rebellion blog.

    In that discussion, you wrote, "I onced asked him (DiLorenzo) about how the confederacy played in the coming of the Rebellion in terms of his book, The Real Lincoln, and he said he did not deal with the actions of the confederacy. And his point was basically that even if there had not been a south or slavery...Lincoln would have still invaded the south."

    I then took it upon myself to contact DiLorenzo to inquire about the truth of that. His response: "I have never said or written any such thing." All you had to say in response to that was "In the ten years of dealing with neo-confederates I have learned one thing...well actually two. 1. they cannot debated (sic) and 2. they turn to name calling when they cannot debate."

    I responded, "Yeah, you're quite the intellectual specimen there, Mr. Meyer. Hard for us neo-Confederates to compete with your debating prowess, that undefeatable mixture of invective, illogic, sloppy history and telling of outright falsehoods.

    From whom did you learn such formidable debating skills? Ed Sebesta?"

    You promptly exited that discussion, and if I'm not mistaken you haven't been back to the Rebellion blog since. As Old Rebel noted in reply to my comment, "Billy Yank/kindredblood, like Sebesta, comes on strong but can't deliver. Check out the comments section in this recent post on the WSI to see what I mean. The boy folded like a cheap lawn chair."

    https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=7205107949341817795&postID=4498608505864825006

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  10. P.S., Corey, try to focus. My initial response to your here had nothing to do with your assessment of Longcore's article. And I have already made my own point about it, which echoes one of your points: that it's pure speculation. But as I noted, Yankee apologetes are notorious for doing the same thing. They engage in wild speculation about what would have happened if the South had one, and Mr. Longcore did it right back at them to show them just how worthless such an exercise is.

    Yeah, Longcore got a couple of historical facts wrong. To highlight this however is to miss the essential point.

    Hope that clears it up for you.

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  11. Well, when Mr. Conn does not post my comments it is hard to get the complete picture of what my argument is. I hope this one will get through.

    As for the article anyone knows that if you start out your article with historical inaccuracies, the rest of the article is not worth much.

    BTW,I have stopped using the handle Billy Yank, why do you still hide behind Snaggle-tooth Jones?

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  12. That would be "if the South had won". Sigh.

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  13. Great post,

    This is one of those great what-if's. I for one would have loved to be in a nation that minds it's own business and does not go about trying to make others mirror our own laws. Thank you sir for the alternate history walk through. Alas, we are not in that CSA utopia, but rathewr in a Yankee driven hell!!!

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  14. emeraldjag99
    I agree with number of speculations made by the author particularly the non-involvement of USA in WWI and its subsequent affects. I suspect Japan would not have attacked Pearl Harbor for two reasons: no German Blitzkrieg; and no oil embargo. CSA would have sold them the oil. However, Japan would be a third rate nation today because the country would still be run by the military. There wouldn't be Professor Deming and quality improvements. The pressure on US auto industry would come from another country. I also agree that USA would not be the world's "Adult Supervisor" as it would not have the money, will power nor the need for its policeman's role.

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  15. It would seem that Mr C Meyer skipped the first two sentences. What a nice little essay. I had missed reading it somehow. I would guess that Mr Meyer is a Republican, just a guess. He strikes me as someone from FOX ( Faux ) News. Last evening I heard a little of a debate ( near the end ) that seemed to be a rant between two persons that agreed with each other that banking regulations had made bankers criminals for without those regulations bankers would not be criminals. All I can say is that if it were legal to rob their bank, we could rob it and not be guilty of anything. If one has enough money, one can make anything legal, even mass murder, genocide, etc.

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  16. Those who think that the CS Forces could not have followed up their victory fail to understand that this is exactly what then-Brigadier General Jackson and Colonel Stuart had in mind....but were ordered not to pursue the defeated Union forces of McDowell (these are all on record). Stuart was ready and so was Jackson, but they were ordered to let their troops "rest"...

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  17. I am from Connecticut, but this article was very interesting and I found myself really getting into the what if... history I often like to read. This article was that genre at its finest however I find there are a few flaws in your thinking. I believe the CSA would have eventually abolished slavery as stopping the slave trade did not work for the Union. I also do not think California would join the CSA. I finally believe that there would be rising tensions between the USA and CSA which (after the WWI in your article) would cause another war of which the USA would have the backing of the Allies and the Confederacy woulf have the backing of Germany and the other Axis powers. I believe that the war would end in the Union winning but that is just my belief...

    Overall I loved your article and I am greatly interested in what you think would have happened next... perhaps you could make a follow up.

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  18. I love your artical, and if this was to be the future if the CSA won, this world be a lot better place then it is now. With many possibilities of "what If's" out there, I'm pertty sure that it couldn't be any worse then what the USA is doin now. And I would like to beleive the CSA sure as hell wouldn't let their country be run down as this one is now. I sure do wish we could turn back time so we could see.

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  19. Wow! I have been reading a lot of "What if the South won Civil War" and this is by far the BEST article ever!!! Really well researched and thought-provoking. I love how you talked about the Federal Reserve, which was approved by Wilson in 1913. Sadly, that was the death of the Republic and the birth of an empire. And because of the Fed, the US (including the former CSA states) will collapse under its own weight.

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  20. The South had too much Capital and Free Labor Resources tied up in Slavery, for it to collapse with the coming of automation. I firmly believe the CSA would have continued Slavery, well into the 20th Century.

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  21. Dang Lincoln would die that's harsh :o

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